Excessive Optimism and Record Rally Trigger (Another) Portfolio Rebalance

By |2020-09-04T09:41:56-08:00September 4th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 5 Minutes After March delivered a historical drop in the stock market and ended the longest bull market on record, BWM rebalanced portfolios to move from an underweight position in stocks to an equal weight, taking advantage of attractive valuations and extreme pessimism. Yesterday, we rebalanced again for very similar reasons,

The Next Big Hurdle for 2020: Election Day

By |2020-08-21T08:57:22-08:00August 24th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 7 Minutes 2020 has been a wild year so far—an unprecedented year, you could even say, as many memes do. And yet, another major event looms on the horizon: the presidential election, set against a backdrop of recession, global pandemic and social unrest. Here we consider how markets have behaved through

Is The Recession Over? | June 2020 Webinar Recap

By |2020-06-19T11:57:56-08:00June 19th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 3 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 broke several records, including the fastest recession in the history of the US*. In our most recent webinar titled, “Is The Recession Over?”, we take a look at the key indicators we are watching to determine if the recession has ended. Here are the key

Does the S&P 500 Have the COVID-19 Antibody?

By |2020-05-19T10:03:40-08:00May 18th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 7 Minutes The US unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression. Manufacturing activity plunged to an 11-year low. The Leading Economic Index posted the largest decline in its 60-year history. Full-year earnings estimates have tumbled downward across all sectors. While all this bad economic news

The Recession Has Arrived—Now What?

By |2020-04-14T10:40:45-08:00April 14th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 6 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 continues to smash records. Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled a breathtaking 6.606 million, well above consensus estimates of 4.500 million and just barely below the record-setting 6.867 million claims recorded the week before, as shown below. Over the past four weeks, initial

Fast-Moving Bear Market Triggers Portfolio Rebalancing

By |2020-04-08T09:26:25-08:00March 20th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 6 Minutes Five short weeks ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs—then everything changed. As the novel coronavirus began establishing a foothold in countries around the world, US stocks entered bear market territory with record-setting speed. In this article, we look at the current bear market and implications for

Markets Plunge as Coronavirus Spreads: What to Watch Next

By |2020-04-08T09:26:25-08:00February 27th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 6 minutes After weeks of coronavirus news coverage and considerable handwringing, markets (finally) took a steep tumble as the fear factor intensified. With the virus spreading to more locations—making it clear that China’s quarantine efforts have fallen short—and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning Americans to brace for a widespread

The Next Recession: Bernanke’s Views on 3 Likely Causes

By |2020-04-08T09:26:25-08:00February 18th, 2020|Market Commentary|

Time to Read: 7 Minutes In July 2019, the US economic expansion crossed the 121-month mark, stealing the crown for the longest uninterrupted stretch of post-war growth from the economic boom of the 1990s. As the expansion—now in month 127—continues to grow longer, our clients have been asking, “When will the next recession occur?” Analyzing