Market Commentary2019-10-25T08:09:55-08:00

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Mixed Signals Webinar Recap | October 2019 Market Update

Time to Read: 3 minutes Mixed signals from some of our key indicators have caused us to remain underweight equities after cutting exposure from an overweight position last year. We will continue to focus on these key indicators to help determine what’s next for the markets. Here are our key

Fed Cuts, Recessions and Stock Market Performance

Time to Read: 7 minutes In our latest webinar we discussed all the media coverage around a potential recession in the United States. In that presentation, we featured a version of the table below. which is Ned Davis Research’s (NDR's) Recession Watch Report. The table features ten key indicators that

Aging Expansion Hit with Summer Volatility

Time to read: 5 minutes | The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in 10 years was supposed to be met with cheers by financial markets. Wall Street’s response to the 0.25% cut to the target Federal Funds rate on July 31 quickly turned sour. Capital markets, addicted to a

2019 Mid Year Webinar Recap

Time to read: 2 minutes | A year after cutting equity exposure from an overweight position to marketweight, we are focusing on key indicators to help determine what’s next for the markets. Here are our key takeaways from Brown Wealth Management’s Mid Year Update Webinar: The secular bull market

The Fed to the Rescue

Time to read: 5 minutes | “Don’t fight the Fed” is one of our rules of tactical investing. This year it’s been easy to observe Federal Reserve policies directly affecting capital markets. The Fed pivot on January 5 ignited a stock-market rally that took some of the US averages, such

The Trade War is Not (Yet) Over

Time to read: 7 minutes | The first half of May has been a rude awakening for investors as the U.S./China trade conflict has unexpectedly escalated. This escalation started with a weekend tweet by President Trump, followed by increased tariffs on Chinese imports that range from 10% to 25%. The response

Q1 2019 Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes | After moving to an underweight position in equities for the first time since 2009, we are shifting our focus on what is next for the markets in 2019 and our portfolios. While our indicators deteriorated during the second half of 2018, our portfolios

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly – Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes |  After moving to an underweight position in equities in 2018, we are closely watching our indicators to see what is next for the markets and our portfolios. While our indicators are giving mixed signals, our portfolios remain in a defensive position despite the

Still Underweight… For Now

Time to read: 5 minutes | While capital markets have advanced off of the late December lows, few of our objective market measures indicate that the bottoming process is complete. The list of potential sources for further market gyrations is long—including slowing global economic growth, monetary and trade policy errors, investor

2019 Market Outlook Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes |  After moving to an underweight position in equities for the first time since 2009, we are shifting our focus on what is next for the markets in 2019 and our portfolios. While our indicators deteriorated during the second half of 2018, our portfolios

Bear Watch Report over 40%: Cutting Equities Again

Time to read: 7 minutes | On July 11th, 2018, we wrote about the “tug of war” between strong domestic economic news and potential for interest rate hikes, domestic policy mistakes, and increased risks for international equity markets.  We argued it was no longer prudent to own stocks in excess of

3 Reasons Why a U.S. Recession is Not on the Horizon

Time to read: 7 minutes | Economic growth drives profits, which should help fuel long-term gains in stocks through 2019. Most economic sub-cycles are still young, there’s little debt creation and consumer confidence is high. There’s no over investment, tighter conditions or shocks— which often precede recession. How much further

The Truth Behind the Old Adage “Don’t Fight the Fed”

Time to read: 5 minutes | It appears 2018 will be the first year since 1972 when no major asset class returned 5% or more.  Global quantitative tightening could be the culprit according to Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research. While the Federal Reserve has been trimming its

The US Stock Market Could Worsen

Time to read: 6 minutes | Smartest game plan: review the stock weightings in your portfolio. While global stocks have been down since January, U.S. stocks dropped 10% or more in October. As corrections can turn into steep drops (bear markets), consider reducing your stock allocation. As investors retest the

Cutting Equity Allocation to “Underweight”

Time to read: 5 minutes | On Friday, November 2, 2018, Brown Wealth Management reduced equity investments across each of our clients’ managed portfolios.  The resulting allocations own less than their benchmark in stocks for the first time since 2009. The change comes on the heels of our recent reduction to

Q3 2018 Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes | After a move back to benchmark weighting in equities for the first time in nearly 3 years, we are shifting our focus on what is next for our portfolios. While our indicators are giving mixed signals as to what the next allocation shift

Cutting Equities to Benchmark Weight

Time to read: 4 minutes | This week we trimmed equity holdings on all of our portfolios.  Since early 2016, Brown Wealth Management accounts have owned equities in excess of their respective benchmarks.  This bullish stance has corresponded with a period of strong stock market performance.  Our changes this week reduced